The Battle for the Belt began in 2015 as an idea from the two schools' student governments: a wrestling-style championship belt, and a nod to the conference they share. Most years it's about bragging rights in the state. This year it's also about December. Troy and South Alabama are both 4-5 with three games left, so each needs two more wins to reach a bowl. The loser Saturday night will have to win out, and the roads ahead aren't equal. South Alabama goes to 3-6 Southern Miss next and closes at home against App State. Troy hosts Georgia Southern, 4-1 in the league, and finishes at Arkansas State, so a loss would leave the Trojans the harder climb.
Both teams are coming off losses that stung in different ways. Troy fumbled its homecoming away against Louisiana Tech, losing four fumbles and turning it over five times in a 41-17 defeat. It was the Trojans' first game with four lost fumbles since 2010, and Gerad Parker didn't dress it up afterward: Troy "can't lose the turnover margin." A week earlier, the same team had gone to James Madison and won in overtime, with safety Justin Powe picking off three passes.
South Alabama's loss was closer and maybe harder to take. The Jags rallied at Louisiana and came up short in the final two minutes, 28-26, their third straight loss. Bishop Davenport took every snap at quarterback and ran for two touchdowns, one of them from 45 yards out. Jared Hollins had been the starter before that, and the school hasn't said who starts Saturday.
Whoever plays quarterback, Major Applewhite's team wants to run the ball. They lead the Sun Belt in rushing, and Keenan Phillips, PJ Martin and Trae'von Dunbar have shared the load all season. Louisiana held them in check last week, so the question is whether that was a blip. Troy sits in the middle of the league against the run, and Donnie Smith, with eight sacks, gives the Trojans someone who can make a quarterback hurry. The flip side is South Alabama's own run defense, which ranks near the bottom of the league and gives Tucker Kilcrease and the Trojans' ground game something to work with.
The first meeting, in 2012, was a rain-soaked Troy win at old Ladd-Peebles Stadium across town, years before the Jaguars moved football onto their own campus. Troy leads the series 10-4 and has won seven of the last eight. South Alabama's one win in that stretch came in Mobile in 2024, 25-9, and it was the Jaguars' first belt since 2017. Troy took it back last October, 31-24 in overtime, with Kilcrease accounting for three touchdowns and running for more than 100 yards. This time it's a White Out in Mobile, with a clear, cool night in the forecast.
The projection is South Alabama 28, Troy 24. The Jaguars are at home, they've protected the ball better this season, and their running game is the best single thing either team does. Troy's defense can keep this close, and if the Trojans clean up the fumbles they're more than capable of taking the belt back to Troy. Expect it to come down to the fourth quarter.
The market, for the record: South Alabama is about a 2.5-point favorite, and the total is 55.5. The projection (South Alabama by 4) sits close to the line, a little toward the Jaguars.
What breaks it: Troy holds on to the ball, Smith and the Trojans' front keep the Jaguars' backs from getting loose, and Kilcrease runs the way he did last October. The other way: South Alabama controls the clock on the ground and Troy's turnover trouble follows it to Mobile, and the Jaguars win going away.