Neither of these teams wants to watch last week's tape. Arkansas State lost at home to UL Monroe on a field goal with 1:49 left. Coastal Carolina turned the ball over six times on Homecoming and lost to Old Dominion 21-8. On the teal turf in Conway, one of them gets to put that behind them.
For the Red Wolves, the loss stung because they'd just taken the lead. Arkansas State kicked a field goal to go up 17-16 with about six minutes left, then watched ULM grind out a long drive for the winning kick. Trey Owens had one last chance from his own 44, and it ended with an interception. Coming out of a bye week, Butch Jones's team looked flat, and they lost to a Warhawks team that hadn't won in Jonesboro since 2001.
Coastal's afternoon was worse. The Chanticleers fumbled and threw the ball away six times, ran for 20 yards on 27 carries and didn't score an offensive touchdown for the first time all season. Linebacker Marcellius Pulliam made a school-record 22 tackles in a losing effort. First-year coach Ryan Beard called it one of the worst performances he'd been part of in a long time.
That puts the spotlight on Coastal's quarterback. Deuce Bailey came into that game near the top of the league in passing yards, then turned it over five times and was pulled early in the fourth quarter. Beard said the job is being evaluated but that nothing says Bailey won't start, and no one has been named for Saturday. When Bailey is right, he can carry this offense. He threw for nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns at Georgia State two weeks ago.
The stakes are sharper for the Chants. At 3-6, they have to win their last three, starting here, to reach six wins, and a loss ends that chance. It's also their last home game of the season. Arkansas State has a little more room. The Red Wolves need two wins in their last three, but the next one is at unbeaten Louisiana Tech, so this is the one they can least afford to drop.
On the field, both teams have struggled to run the ball and to stop the run, so the quarterbacks will decide it. Owens has thrown for more than 2,000 yards but has been careless at times, and the Red Wolves' defense has come up with at least two interceptions in three straight games. If Coastal's ball security doesn't improve, Arkansas State will make them pay.
The series is tied 3-3. Arkansas State won the first three, then Coastal took the next three, the last in Jonesboro in 2023. The Red Wolves haven't won in Conway since 2018.
The projection is Arkansas State 24, Coastal Carolina 21. The Red Wolves take the ball away more than they give it up, and the Chants are coming off six turnovers with their quarterback situation unsettled. Coastal is at home on a sunny, cool afternoon with its season on the line, and that should keep it close to the end.
The market, for the record: Coastal Carolina is about a 1.5-point favorite, and the total is 50.5. The projection (Arkansas State by 3) has the road team winning, against the line.
What breaks it: Bailey starts, plays like he did in Atlanta, and Coastal holds onto the ball. The other way it breaks: the Chants turn it over early again, Owens settles in, and Arkansas State pulls away.