The last time Utah State and San Diego State met with a championship on the line, in December 2021, the Aggies came in as underdogs and won the Mountain West title game 46-13. It was the Aztecs' last game in Carson before they moved into their new stadium in Mission Valley, on the site of old San Diego Stadium. Five years later both schools are in a new league, and Saturday the rebuilt Pac-12's race for second place comes to Snapdragon. Both teams win at home and haven't won anywhere else. Each is 4-1 in its own stadium and 0-4 on the road.
San Diego State has had two weeks to get ready since a 26-20 win over Washington State on a rain-soaked Halloween. Lucky Sutton ran for a season-high 115 yards, Javion Kinnard ran for 87 and two touchdowns, and the defense stopped the Cougars on fourth down three times, the last with 38 seconds left. The touchdown that put it away came on a play the Aztecs call "Odin's Pass," a fourth-and-goal handoff, pitch and throw that ended with Bert Emanuel Jr. finding tight end Jackson Ford.
Utah State has won three of its last four, and last Saturday in Logan the defense did nearly all the work in a 17-10 win over Fresno State. The Bulldogs ran for 16 yards and didn't score a touchdown until the final minutes. Ronnie Mageo had a career-high 3.5 tackles for loss, Asher Cunningham made stops on third and fourth down, and freshman Kaina Watson recovered the onside kick to finish it. It was the 150th win of Bronco Mendenhall's head coaching career. "Our kids are tough, and they're resilient, and they just keep showing up," he said afterward.
Both teams have changed quarterbacks. At San Diego State, Stone Saunders, a redshirt freshman, took over when senior Jayden Denegal hurt his ankle on Oct. 17, and he has started the two games since. Denegal is expected to be available, but "as of right now, Stone's the starter," Sean Lewis said Monday. At Utah State, McCae Hillstead started the opener, Grady Brosterhous took over from mid-September through late October, and Hillstead returned from an undisclosed injury to start the last two games. He hasn't thrown an interception in either, and no change has been announced for Saturday.
The heart of it is the Aztecs' backs against the Aggies' front. San Diego State runs for close to 200 yards a game at home, and Sutton and Kinnard can share the load. Utah State has held three straight opponents under 100 rushing yards. Mendenhall knows what's coming. "San Diego State's physical and they're capable and they run the ball well," he said this week.
The kicking game could be the tiebreaker. Neither offense throws with much authority, so field position matters, and Jaylon Hawkins has already returned three kickoffs for touchdowns this season, tying Rashaad Penny's school record. Mendenhall called the Aztecs' special teams a consistent strength, and one long return could be worth more Saturday than any drive.
Behind unbeaten Boise State, four teams are tied for second at 3-2, and two of them are here. A Boise win over Oregon State on Saturday clinches the Broncos a spot in the Dec. 4 championship game and the right to host it. By the league's own notes, Utah State has to win to stay in the hunt, and San Diego State is the only team in the four-way tie guaranteed a spot if it gets to five league wins, which means winning here and at Boise next week.
Both teams also need two more wins to reach six, with three games left. After Boise, San Diego State is projected to close at Fresno State in the league's flex week. Utah State goes to Oregon State, then is projected to host Boise State. The loser Saturday would have to win out, and both of those roads run through Boise.
History is with the visitors. San Diego State leads the series 13-5, but Utah State has won the last three, its first streak that long against the Aztecs, and San Diego State hasn't beaten the Aggies at home since 2015. On their last trip to Snapdragon, in 2023, Ike Larsen ended a double-overtime game with a 62-yard interception return. Saturday is Senior Night, and Sutton, in what is likely his last home game, needs 30 rushing yards to reach 2,000 for his career.
The projection is San Diego State 20, Utah State 17. The Aztecs are rested, they're a different offense at home, and their running game and return game give them two ways to score against a defense that rarely gives up long drives. Utah State's defense should keep it close, and the Aggies' run in this series is hard to dismiss, so this one should be decided late. Early-week forecasts gave San Diego a chance of showers on Saturday.
The market, for the record: Utah State is about a 2.5-point favorite, and the total is 42.5. The projection (San Diego State by 3) takes the home team, on the other side of the line, and comes in under the total.
What breaks it: Hillstead keeps protecting the ball, the Aggies' front wins on early downs, and Utah State gets its first road win of the season in the one place it keeps winning. The other way it breaks: Sutton and Kinnard get rolling, Hawkins flips the field with a return, and the Aztecs build a lead that Utah State's offense isn't built to chase.