ESPN's College GameDay has been to Boise once before. That was Sept. 25, 2010, when third-ranked Boise State beat No. 24 Oregon State 37-24. Sixteen years later the show is back, set up on DeChevrieux Field next to Albertsons Stadium on Saturday morning, and the visitor is the same. This time it's a league game. Oregon State is one of the two schools left from the old Pac-12, Boise State is one of the newcomers, and their 12th meeting is their first as conference rivals.
Boise State has won eight straight since a seven-point loss at Oregon in the opener, and last Saturday's was the loudest. The Broncos scored touchdowns on their first four drives at Colorado State and won 64-38, the most points they've ever scored on the road. Max Cutforth, starting for the injured Maddux Madsen, accounted for five touchdowns, four of them through the air. Dylan Riley ran for 192 yards and caught a 73-yard touchdown on the Broncos' second play. The win also locked up a 29th straight winning season, the longest such run going in college football.
Oregon State is trying to stop a slide. A year ago, when JaMarcus Shephard was hired, the Beavers were 2-9 heading into their final game. In his first season they won five in a row in October, then lost at Fresno State and at home to Texas State, 42-21, last Saturday. Texas State ran for 386 yards, and freshman Jesse Legree, who leads the nation in receiving yards, caught eight passes but never broke a long one. The bigger blow came in the third quarter, when quarterback Braden Atkinson hit his throwing hand on a helmet.
That injury is the story of the week. Atkinson, the Mercer transfer who leads the country in passing yards, was listed as doubtful on Wednesday's Pac-12 availability report, and ESPN reported Thursday that he won't play, though Shephard said that same morning the Beavers were still running him through tests. On Monday, Shephard had said, "Hopefully he'll be ready to go this weekend." If Atkinson can't go, Maalik Murphy is expected to start. The former Texas and Duke quarterback made eight starts for the Beavers last season and threw an interception in relief last Saturday.
Boise State has its own quarterback question, with a happier tone. Madsen took a hard hit near his left knee in the fourth quarter against Texas State on Halloween and sat out the Colorado State game. He's listed as questionable, but Spencer Danielson said Wednesday that he practiced this week and that the Broncos feel "really good" about where he is. "If he's healthy, he's going to be our starting quarterback," Danielson said. If not, Cutforth hasn't turned the ball over in his two games in relief. Running back Sire Gaines and safety Travis Anderson, who leads the team in interceptions, are also questionable, and left guard Carson Rasmussen is out.
On the field, it starts with Riley. He leads the Pac-12 in rushing, and Oregon State has had trouble stopping the run all season. If the Broncos can run the ball and keep it, the Beavers' offense spends the afternoon watching. The second matchup is on the other line of scrimmage. Takari Hickle is Oregon State's best pass rusher, and Boise State's line has allowed only a handful of sacks all season. Murphy will need time to find Legree, and Hickle is the Beavers' best hope of making the Broncos' quarterback, whoever it is, uncomfortable.
For Boise State, the stakes are clear. A win would clinch the top seed in the Pac-12 and home field for the championship game on Dec. 4. The Broncos are No. 24 in the College Football Playoff rankings and the only Group of Six team in them. For Oregon State, this is the whole race. A win would hand Boise State its first league loss and pull the Beavers right back into the hunt. A loss would all but end it. The Beavers are one win short of a bowl, too, hosting Utah State next week, with a Nov. 28 flex game still to come.
Oregon State leads the series 6-5, and two of those wins, in Corvallis in 2003 and 2005, came by two and three points. Boise is another matter. The Broncos have won four of the five meetings there, including a 34-18 win on the blue turf two years ago.
The projection is Boise State 38, Oregon State 24. The Broncos are the better running team and the better run defense, they keep their quarterback cleaner, and they're at home with a national audience watching and a title-game hosting spot on the line. Oregon State's passing game can make this interesting even without Atkinson, but asking a backup to win a shootout in Boise is a lot. Expect a partly cloudy, breezy kickoff in the mid-50s after a showery morning.
The market, for the record: Boise State is about a 14.5-point favorite, and the total is 63.5. The line has climbed about 10 points since it opened, a move that lines up with Atkinson's injury. The projection (Boise State by 14) now trails the line by a hair, with fewer points than the total.
What breaks it: Murphy settles in early, Legree gets behind the Broncos' secondary a couple of times, and Hickle makes the Boise State quarterback hurry. The other way it breaks: Riley gets going in the first quarter, the Broncos hold the ball for long stretches, and Oregon State is chasing the game by halftime.