When Pat Hill came home to coach Fresno State, he said his Bulldogs would play anybody, anywhere, anytime. The new Pac-12 is putting that to the test. Saturday the team with the green "V" for the San Joaquin Valley on its helmets heads to the edge of the Texas Hill Country to play a school it has never faced. Fresno State and Texas State are both new to the rebuilt league, and on Heroes Day and Community Day at UFCU Stadium they finally meet.
Fresno State arrives frustrated. The Bulldogs lost 17-10 at Utah State last Saturday, and they didn't reach the end zone until Jayden Mandal found Ezekiel Avit on a back-shoulder throw with 1:30 left. Utah State recovered the onside kick that followed. Mandal threw for 262 yards and Josiah Freeman caught eight passes for 114, but the running game went nowhere all night. It was the third loss in four games, and afterward the captains and a few other players met with Matt Entz for about 90 minutes to air what was wrong. Entz didn't spare himself. "Everyone has to be better, coaches included, myself included," he said.
Texas State is coming in the other direction. A week after blowing a late lead in a 46-45 loss at Boise State, the Bobcats went to Corvallis in the rain and beat Oregon State 42-21. Torrance Burgess Jr. ran for 196 yards and went past 1,000 for the season, Davian Jackson scored three short touchdowns, and Brad Jackson threw for 214 yards and ran for 87 more, including a 27-yard score. The defense picked off two passes, one by Jayden Bradley and one by Craig Royal Jr. G.J. Kinne called it "a special one."
Neither team has a major injury on the public reports this week. Kinne said Davian Jackson is healthy again after missing time, and that Burgess came through the Oregon State game with nothing worse than bumps and bruises. Mandal remains Fresno State's quarterback, though Entz's staff is still looking for ways to help him on third-and-long, where drives have stalled all season.
Saturday's first question is whether anyone can slow the Bobcats' running game. They are one of the best rushing teams in the country, with Burgess doing most of the work and Brad Jackson adding the threat of a quarterback who can pull it and go. Entz knows what's coming. "He's a dual-threat quarterback," he said this week, and his defense has had trouble with those, including last Saturday, when Utah State's McCae Hillstead ran for a touchdown. Fresno State's best counter is its knack for taking the ball away. The Bulldogs have forced far more turnovers than they've committed, and Texas State has been loose with the ball. Kinne's message after Corvallis was short: "Can't put the ball on the ground."
There's a Fresno State thread running through that Oregon State win, too. The Bulldogs beat the Beavers 38-22 on Halloween, and Kinne said his defense borrowed from that approach, playing more man coverage than usual. Saturday, Fresno State gets a look at its own idea.
The title race gives this game its edge. Boise State hasn't lost in league play, and four teams sit at 3-2 behind it, Texas State among them. The Bobcats close with Washington State, still winless in the league, on Senior Day, and they own head-to-head wins over Oregon State and Utah State. The only 3-2 team that has beaten them, San Diego State, still has to go to Boise. Win Saturday, and Texas State has a clear road to the championship game on Dec. 4. For Fresno State the math is harsher. Losing would drop the Bulldogs to 2-4 in the league with no way to finish second.
Both teams also need one more win to become bowl eligible. Fresno State has Colorado State at home next week and a Nov. 28 flex game still to be set. Texas State, which has won a bowl game in each of Kinne's three seasons, would rather not wait for Senior Day to get there.
The projection is Texas State 31, Fresno State 21. The Bobcats run the ball far better, they're 4-1 at home this season, and Fresno State hasn't found a running game to keep Burgess and the Jacksons on the sideline. The Bulldogs' defense and their turnover edge should keep it from getting away early, and if they win the turnover battle by two or more, the margin shrinks fast. Rain is possible in San Marcos, where it should be mild and cloudy, in the upper 60s.
The market, for the record: Texas State is about a 9.5-point favorite, and the total is 59.5. The projection (Texas State by 10) sits right on the line, with a lower-scoring game than the total suggests.
What breaks it: Fresno State forces a couple of early fumbles, Mandal gets the ball to Freeman on third down, and the Bulldogs make the Bobcats play from behind. The other way it breaks: Burgess gets loose in the first quarter, Fresno State's offense stalls again, and Texas State turns Heroes Day into a long afternoon for the visitors.