Until Nov. 1, New Mexico was one of 21 programs that had never appeared in the AP Top 25. That Sunday the Lobos showed up at No. 22, and five days later in Reno they won for the first time as a ranked team. Saturday night they come home as No. 23, the first time University Stadium has hosted them with a number beside their name. The visitor is UNLV, the team that has played in each of the last three Mountain West championship games and needs a win here to keep a fourth within reach.
New Mexico arrives with the most complete performance of its season behind it, a 31-3 win at Nevada on Friday, Nov. 6. Scottre Humphrey ran for 107 yards and two touchdowns, and Toa Fa'avae, a week removed from a three-interception game at San José State, didn't turn it over once. The defense held Nevada to minus-9 rushing yards, and defensive end Brett Karhu's strip-sack, recovered by Darren Agu at the Nevada 5, set up a short touchdown. "I feel like we have the best defense in the conference, maybe even the country," Karhu said afterward. The numbers back him up: the Lobos give up fewer yards than any team in the FBS.
UNLV's Saturday night ended with a comeback that came up short. Wyoming led 34-21 at halftime and 41-21 late in the third quarter at Allegiant Stadium before Dan Mullen pulled starter Jackson Arnold for Alex Orji. Orji threw a 48-yard touchdown pass to Tavian McNair and ran for another score, and Jai'den Thomas's 3-yard run made it 41-35. The Rebels had a chance to win late, but Orji's pass from the Wyoming 11 was intercepted in the back of the end zone. Mullen said the team looked lethargic and that he went to Orji looking for a spark.
That leaves the week's biggest question in the Rebels' backfield. Arnold, the Week 1 starter, completed 7 of 18 passes before he was pulled. Orji, a 6-3, 240-pound former Michigan quarterback, gave the offense a lift but also threw the interception that ended it. UNLV hasn't said publicly who starts, and Jason Eck said the Lobos are preparing for both. New Mexico has its own holes to fill. Center Kaden Robnett, who had started 21 straight games, is out for the season, and Malik Aliane has moved over from left guard. Linebacker Jaxton Eck is questionable with a shoulder injury and hasn't played since the UTEP game on Oct. 3.
Start with Thomas. He leads the Mountain West in rushing, and he's three rushing touchdowns short of Lexington Thomas's school record of 40. Eck called him probably the best back in the league. He runs into a front that Nevada's Jeff Choate called the best defensive front in the Group of Six, a rotation of mostly fifth-year transfers that ranks among the stingiest run defenses in the country.
The second matchup is the ball itself. New Mexico has 26 takeaways, second in the nation, and UNLV's quarterbacks threw an interception each against Wyoming. On the other side of the ball, New Mexico's running game, which went for 213 yards in Reno, faces a UNLV defense that just gave up 351 on the ground. "It's my job to fix it," Mullen said of the run defense.
For the Lobos, the path to a Mountain West title runs through this game. They're the only team without a league loss, with a trip to one-loss Wyoming next Friday and Air Force at home the day after Thanksgiving still to come. "We can control our outcome of winning the conference title," Eck said last week. UNLV, at 3-2, can't afford a third league loss. Bowl eligibility is one win away for the Rebels, too, with a trip to San José State and the season finale against Nevada still left. That finale decides who keeps the Fremont Cannon, painted Rebel red since UNLV's 42-17 win in Reno a year ago.
UNLV leads the all-time series 15-13, but New Mexico won the last one, 40-35 at Allegiant Stadium last November, when D.J. McKinney scored the go-ahead touchdown with 2:54 left. That win clinched the Lobos' first bowl trip since 2016. They've also won 11 straight at University Stadium, and they'd like a 12th in front of a home crowd that has waited a long time for a night like this one.
The projection is New Mexico 27, UNLV 13. The Lobos have the best defense in the league, they take the ball away better than almost anyone, and they're facing an offense that doesn't know yet who its quarterback is. UNLV's best hope is Thomas, and he's running into a wall. The Rebels still put up 35 on a bad night against Wyoming, though, and if the Lobos' passing game turns sloppy again, this could tighten up. Mild temperatures, in the low 50s, are expected at kickoff.
The market, for the record: New Mexico is about a 14.5-point favorite, and the total is 46.5. The projection (New Mexico by 14) lands right at the line, a half point shy.
What breaks it: Fa'avae protects the ball, Humphrey finds the same room he found in Reno, and the Lobos' front makes Thomas a non-factor, so the crowd gets to enjoy the fourth quarter. The other way it breaks: Orji starts and his legs give New Mexico a look it hasn't seen, Thomas breaks a long one, and UNLV is still in it in the final minutes with its season riding on every snap.