Air Force came home from West Point with the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy, its first since 2022 and its 22nd since the trophy was first awarded in 1972, more than any other academy. The man on the other sideline Saturday chased that same trophy for 15 seasons as Navy's head coach. Ken Niumatalolo faced the Falcons 16 times in that job, and counting his playing and assistant years, he has seen them more than 30 times. Now in his third season at San José State, he brings the Spartans back to the stadium where they beat Air Force 17-7 two years ago.
Troy Calhoun saw that coming. "I do know this, he'll have his team ready to go," Calhoun said before that 2024 meeting. "He always did at Navy."
The Falcons earned the trophy the hard way last Saturday. They led Army 17-7 at halftime on short touchdown runs by Kemper Hodges and quarterback Evan Medders, then watched the Black Knights take a 21-17 lead behind a spark off the bench from Bryson Lutter. Medders answered 35 seconds into the fourth quarter with a 24-yard touchdown pass to Simon Kibbee, and Army never scored again. Hodges ran for 119 yards in the 24-21 win, Air Force's first over Army since 2022.
Medders wasn't the plan in August. Liam Szarka, the returning starter, was lost for the season with a knee injury, and the sophomore made his first career start at Northern Illinois on Oct. 10. Air Force has won four of five since, with only a loss at Wyoming.
San José State is coming off a win of its own, 30-19 over Northern Illinois at CEFCU Stadium. The Spartans led 13-0, let NIU tie it, then put it away with two touchdowns early in the third quarter, a 1-yard run by Viliami Teu and a 29-yard pass from Daniel Rolovich to Dominique McKenzie. The defense had five sacks and two takeaways, with Dylan Lee picking off a pass and making 10 tackles. Freshman receiver Carson Clark had six catches, his 10th straight game with at least five, a school record for a freshman.
Rolovich, a true freshman, made his third career start in that game. Senior Luke Weaver, who started the first six games, has been dealing with an undisclosed upper-body injury, and Niumatalolo went to the freshman against UTEP in October. "We just felt like we needed a spark," he said then. The Spartans haven't said otherwise for Saturday.
Start with the Spartans' passing game against a secondary that's still sorting itself out. San José State often lines up with four receivers and gets about two-thirds of its yards through the air. Korey Johnson has started every game at one cornerback spot for Air Force, but five different players have started at the other, and sophomore Jerome Drain, who made his first start at West Point, now tops the depth chart. A week after chasing Army's option, that's a big change for a young corner.
The second is what Niumatalolo knows. In his two games against Air Force as San José State's coach, the Falcons ran for noticeably less than they usually do. Still, they hold the ball for well over half of most games, and every long drive keeps a freshman quarterback on the bench.
With a letdown possible after West Point, Calhoun sounded glad for the test. "We need it," he said. "We need to be pushed and challenged and the whole bit."
Air Force has two league losses, to North Dakota State and Wyoming, with New Mexico unbeaten in conference play and Wyoming at one loss, so the Falcons need help to reach the Mountain West title game. Double-digit wins, the first since 2022, are still in reach, with UTEP at home next Friday and a trip to New Mexico the day after Thanksgiving left. San José State plays 13 regular-season games this year, so 6-7 wouldn't be a winning record. To finish above .500, the Spartans need two of their last three, against Air Force, UNLV and North Dakota State, and the last two are at home.
Last year's meeting in San José went to Air Force, 26-16, so the series under Niumatalolo stands 1-1. The rubber match comes at 6,621 feet, at the foot of the Rampart Range.
The projection is Air Force 27, San José State 17. The Falcons lead the country in rushing, they keep the ball away from the other offense, and they're at home at altitude against a freshman quarterback making his first start in Colorado. San José State leads the league in sacks, but that pass rush gets fewer chances against an offense that rarely throws, and Niumatalolo's knowledge of the option should keep it from getting out of hand. Kickoff is forecast to be cloudy, in the mid-40s, with a light wind.
The market, for the record: Air Force is about a 12.5-point favorite, and the total is 47.5. The projection (Air Force by 10) sits a little under the line.
What breaks it: Rolovich hits a couple of early throws at the cornerback spot Air Force is still filling, and the Spartans make the Falcons play from behind, which is not how their offense likes to live. The other way it breaks: Medders and Hodges grind out long drives, San José State gets only a handful of possessions, and Air Force shows no sign of a hangover from West Point.