North Dakota State has played football in 35 states. Saturday makes it 36. The Bison fly nearly 4,000 miles from Fargo for the first meeting between these programs. A program that won 10 FCS national titles, the last in 2024, and plays at home under the steel roof of the Fargodome is spending its first FBS season learning how far the Mountain West stretches.
It is a heavy week on the other side, too. This is Hawaiʻi's first home game since June Jones died last month at 73. Jones arrived in 1999 to a program coming off an 0-12 season, went 9-4 that first year, then led the 2007 team through a 12-0 regular season and into the Sugar Bowl. One of his quarterbacks was Timmy Chang, who set the NCAA career passing record in Jones's offense and now coaches the Rainbow Warriors. "He believed in a young kid from Hawaiʻi and gave me the opportunity of a lifetime to run his offense," Chang said. Saturday is a blackout in Mānoa, with the players in black head to toe, fans asked to match them and a moment of silence before kickoff.
The 'Bows have already won one for Jones. After a 1-6 start, Hawaiʻi won at Northern Illinois, 56-21, and then held on at UTEP last Saturday, 17-14, its first back-to-back road wins since 2007. The helmets in El Paso carried "JJ" stickers. Freshman slotback Titan Lacaden caught all 11 passes thrown his way for 109 yards and a touchdown and was named the league's freshman of the week. Sitani Mikaele capped a 98-yard drive with a touchdown run, and nickelback Elijah Palmer forced two fumbles. "We know it wasn't pretty," Micah Alejado said. "But it was a win. We'll take it."
North Dakota State hasn't played since Oct. 31, when it beat UTEP 31-7 in Fargo, and Tim Polasek admitted afterward to "truly a little bit of a sense of relief to get to the bye week." Nathan Hayes, back from an ankle sprain he suffered at New Mexico, threw for 240 yards, Jackson Williams caught a career-high 10 passes, and cornerback Marion Moore had his fifth interception of the season plus a 46-yard fumble return for a touchdown. Both of the Bison's losses, at UNLV and at New Mexico, were one-score games on the road.
That UTEP win left bruises up front. Left tackle Ryan Babatz and left guard Griffin Empey, a midseason All-America pick, both missed it, and right tackle Kene Anene left with an ankle injury. Their status for Saturday hadn't been reported by Friday, so the Bison line is the first thing to check at kickoff. No injuries of note were reported for Hawaiʻi.
The headline matchup is Alejado against the Bison secondary. Hawaiʻi's quarterback, the league's preseason offensive player of the year, leads the Mountain West in passing, and North Dakota State's defense, which the players call Code Green, has given up fewer points than all but one FBS team and has 14 interceptions. Chang called the Bison "just a really sound football team." Hawaiʻi has given up twice as many sacks as it has made, and the Bison pass rush, led by Kelton McCaslin and linebacker Gavin Sell, had four against UTEP. On the other side, expect DJ Scott and Myles Mitchell to test a Hawaiʻi run defense that has been easier to beat than its pass defense. Polasek summed up the week: "We're expecting a fistfight."
Hawaiʻi's road is narrow. At 3-6 with three games left, the Warriors have to beat North Dakota State, win at Nevada and beat Sacramento State to reach six wins and a shot at a second straight trip to the Hawaiʻi Bowl, which they won last Christmas Eve, 35-31 over Cal. North Dakota State already has its six. A June change in NCAA rules lets programs moving up from FCS play in a bowl right away instead of waiting out a two-year transition, so the Bison's first FBS season can end in a bowl. In the league they sit third, behind New Mexico and Wyoming, with Northern Illinois at home and a trip to San José State left.
The projection is North Dakota State 23, Hawaiʻi 17. The Bison defend far better, protect the ball well and have the more reliable running game, the kind of team that travels. Hawaiʻi is at home on an emotional night, with the conference's most productive passer and a defense that has kept good teams close, and a kickoff a little after 6 p.m. local time feels like past 10 to a team from Fargo. This should stay a one-score game deep into the second half. The forecast is breezy, with trade winds of 20 to 25 mph, a slight chance of a passing shower and temperatures in the mid-70s.
The market, for the record: North Dakota State is about a 6.5-point favorite, and the total is 38.5. The projection (North Dakota State by 6) sits right on the line, a hair toward Hawaiʻi.
What breaks it: Alejado gets time, Lacaden keeps finding the soft spots, and Hawaiʻi plays from ahead in front of a crowd dressed in black. The other way it breaks: the Bison front gets to Alejado early, Moore or another defensive back turns a throw into points, and North Dakota State grinds the clock down, just as it did against UTEP.