Northern Illinois fans know how to celebrate a win at home. After the Huskies beat Central Michigan in 1998, students carried the goalposts down Lincoln Highway and planted them in a campus lagoon. Nobody expects a repeat on Saturday, but NIU, 0-9 in its first season as a football-only member of the Mountain West, is still chasing its first win of the fall.
NIU is the only winless team in the FBS, and the hard year started in February, when Thomas Hammock left for a job with the Seattle Seahawks. Hammock's teams won the 2021 MAC title and, two seasons ago, upset No. 5 Notre Dame 16-14. Rob Harley, his defensive coordinator, took over on an interim basis. The Huskies have had their chances, losing to FCS Illinois State by four in September and by seven at UNLV two weeks ago, but UNLV is the only FBS opponent they've kept within single digits.
Last Saturday at San José State was more of the same. NIU fell behind 13-0, climbed back to tie it, then gave up two quick touchdowns after halftime and lost 30-19, even though it outgained the Spartans. Taron Dickens threw for 259 yards and ran for a score, Elijah Porter led everyone on the field with 85 rushing yards, and DeAree Rogers caught six passes for 86. "Obviously we had a couple catastrophic plays and you're not going to be able to go on the road and beat a good team in our conference doing that," Harley said.
Nevada's offense is in a deeper hole. A week after a 27-0 loss at UCLA, the Wolf Pack hosted No. 22 New Mexico on Friday night, Nov. 6, and lost 31-3. They finished with minus-9 rushing yards, punted 10 times, and got their only points on a Jacob Fernandez field goal at the end of the first half. That's three points in two weeks. "It looked like we were running in cement," Jeff Choate said.
AJ Bianco will make his second straight start at quarterback, the first time this season Nevada has started the same man in back-to-back games. Carter Jones, who opened the year as the starter, has been out for about a month with an arm problem. Choate said he thinks Jones will be available but that he has been down for about three weeks, and he isn't expected to start. An illness has also been working its way through the roster in Reno. On the other side, Porter and senior defensive back Avery Jones were both hurt at San José State, and as of Tuesday Harley said the staff was still evaluating them. If Porter can't go, more of the load falls on Telly Johnson Jr., NIU's leading rusher.
For Nevada, it starts with whether the Wolf Pack can run the ball at all. NIU's run defense has been the weak spot all season, and sophomore Dominic Kelley, Nevada's leading rusher, should get every chance to find room. If the Wolf Pack stay on schedule on early downs, Bianco doesn't have to force throws, and that matters. Nevada has turned the ball over 17 times and taken it away just three times, the kind of gap that can keep a winless team in a game all afternoon.
The other matchup is up front when NIU has the ball. The Huskies have given up far more sacks than Nevada has, and Wolf Pack edge rusher Dylan LaBarbera has 5.5 sacks of his own, with linebacker EJ Smith behind him as the team's leading tackler. Dickens has started to run more over the last two weeks, and that may be his best answer. One Wolf Pack receiver knows the place well: Gary Givens III played for NIU last season.
Nevada has to win out to reach six wins, which means beating NIU, then Hawaiʻi at Mackay Stadium, then UNLV in Las Vegas with the Fremont Cannon on the line. Choate called this one a bring-your-own-energy game, since he doesn't expect a packed house. A bowl is out of reach for NIU, but a win would be the program's first in the Mountain West, at home, with only a trip to North Dakota State and a home finale against UTEP left after it.
Nevada and NIU have met only twice, both as Big West opponents. NIU won 46-42 in Reno in 1993, and Nevada won 35-31 in DeKalb the next year, so this first meeting in 32 years breaks a 1-1 tie.
The projection is Nevada 23, Northern Illinois 17. The Wolf Pack's defense and pass rush are both better, and the Huskies have been beaten soundly on the ground most weeks. But Nevada's offense has gone two games without a touchdown, it's traveling halfway across the country with an illness going through the roster, and its turnover habit is exactly what a hungry home team needs. A dry, chilly afternoon in the low 40s is in the forecast.
The market, for the record: Nevada is about a 7-point favorite, and the total is 47.5. The projection (Nevada by 6) sits just under the line.
What breaks it: Kelley gets going early, Bianco protects the ball, and LaBarbera keeps Dickens running for his life, so Nevada pulls away in the second half. The other way it breaks: the Wolf Pack offense stays stuck, a turnover or two hands NIU a short field, and Johnson and Dickens carry the Huskies into the fourth quarter with a first win in reach.