Before the season, the MAC's preseason poll picked Buffalo sixth. With two games left in the regular season, the Bulls share first place with three other teams, and they've won five straight for the second time in Pete Lembo's three years in charge. Wednesday night is their last home game, at the stadium that was renamed Broadview Stadium this year, and the school is billing it as the MACtion Meat Raffle. The visitor is Central Michigan, picked one spot ahead of Buffalo in that same poll. The Chippewas have a simpler goal: one more win and they're bowl eligible.
Buffalo's win at Ball State last Wednesday was a soggy grind. Rain fell all night in Muncie, and the Cardinals went up 7-0 when a Buffalo punt caromed off one of the Bulls' own blockers and was recovered in the end zone. Jason Wright's 14-yard touchdown pass to Chance Morrow tied it before halftime, and then Messiah Burch took over. He scored from 2 yards out in the third quarter, broke a 67-yard touchdown run in the fourth and finished with a career-high 209 yards on 31 carries. Terrance Shelton Jr. added a 29-yard scoring run, and the Bulls won 28-7.
Central Michigan also won 28-7 that night, and in much the same way. In their final home game, the Chippewas ran for 391 yards against Sacramento State. Jayden Clerveaux scored on a 27-yard run on the opening drive, Nick Woodford ran for 119 yards, and Brock Townsend and Vaughn Blue combined for three touchdowns. "They can all do all of it, but they all kind of have their specialty," head coach Matt Drinkall said of his backs. Clerveaux had his own name for the group: "We call our group the canines, we're all dogs." The defense held the Hornets to 71 yards after halftime and has allowed just one touchdown in each of its last two games.
Neither offense leans much on the pass. Central Michigan opened the year with Angel Flores as its starter, but Flores had ankle surgery after the Western Michigan game in October and is out for the season. Jadyn Glasser, a junior who missed the final 11 games of last season with an injury, has started since. Against Sacramento State, his 27-yard scramble on third down kept alive a 97-yard touchdown drive, the Chippewas' longest of the season. Buffalo's Wright, a sophomore, doesn't put up big numbers either, but he has led late touchdown drives before halftime against Robert Morris, Bowling Green and Miami (OH).
The first matchup is Burch against a Central Michigan run defense that sits in the bottom half of the league. Burch leads the MAC in rushing yards per game, and last week he became the 12th player in Buffalo history to run for 1,000 yards in a season. Drinkall said his defense's turnaround has come from playing with the lead, and that it struggles mostly "when we get buried a couple scores behind." Buffalo's own notes tell the other half: the Bulls are 7-0 this year when they score 21 points or more and 0-3 when they don't.
Then there's ball security. Buffalo has turned it over more often than it has taken it away this season, and Central Michigan's defense has done the opposite. Safety Justin Taylor's interception against Sacramento State, off a pass tipped by Coen Ali, was his fourth of the year.
Buffalo is two steps from Detroit. Toledo, Ohio, Western Michigan and the Bulls are all 5-1 in conference play, and the top two meet for the MAC title at Ford Field on Dec. 5. Buffalo finishes at Akron, still winless in the league, the day after Thanksgiving. Win both and the Bulls can finish no worse than tied for first. They beat Toledo in October but lost to Western Michigan, and Toledo and Ohio play each other on Nov. 27. A win Wednesday would also be Buffalo's eighth, a mark the program has reached only five times since moving up to FBS in 1999.
Central Michigan, at 5-5, needs one more win, and both of its last two games are on the road, here and at Ball State, which was eliminated from bowl contention last week. "They're smart, they can do math. They know the next one gets us a bowl game," Drinkall said. "To me, the number one thing about getting a bowl game is getting your fifth years one more game."
Central Michigan leads the series 9-4, and the last four meetings have all gone to the home team. Last November in Mount Pleasant, the Chippewas won 38-19 in a game decided by five turnovers, with a pick-six before halftime and an 85-yard fumble return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter.
The projection is Buffalo 24, Central Michigan 20. Buffalo is at home, it has the best runner on the field, and it has won eight of its last 13 one-score games. But Central Michigan's defense has turned a corner over the last month, and the Chippewas' four-back rotation can match Buffalo's ground game carry for carry. It shapes up as a short game with few possessions, the kind one turnover or one long run can swing.
The market, for the record: no line had been posted when this was written.
What breaks it: Burch gets loose early, Buffalo crosses 21 points, and the Bulls close their home schedule with a share of first place still in hand. The other way it breaks: Central Michigan's backs wear down Buffalo's front in the second half, Taylor or a teammate takes one away, and the Chippewas leave Amherst with their sixth win.