Peden Stadium has stood on the banks of the Hocking River since October 1929, which makes it the oldest college football venue in the MAC. Lately it has also been one of the hardest places in the country to win. Ohio has won 17 straight games there, the longest home winning streak in Division I, and both of the Bobcats' remaining regular-season games are at home with a conference title on the line. Ball State hasn't won in Athens since a 23-20 game in October 2011. But a year ago in Muncie, the Cardinals beat Ohio as two-touchdown underdogs.
Ohio's last trip went sideways fast. The Bobcats led Miami 17-0 in the second quarter of the 103rd Battle of the Bricks in Oxford, on a Nick Poulos touchdown pass to Riley Neer, a Duncan Brune run and a field goal. Then Miami scored the last 34 points behind true freshman Drew Bellisari, who came off the bench in his first college game. D'Shawntae Jones ran for two touchdowns, and Amariyun Knighten returned Poulos's first interception of the season 58 yards for the final score. The 34-17 loss ended a six-game MAC winning streak, and it was the second time this season Ohio was shut out after halftime. "I'm the head coach, it starts with me and the preparation," John Hauser said.
Ball State's Wednesday night against Buffalo was frustrating in a different way. The Cardinals' defense played its best game of the league season, but the offense never reached the end zone. Brody Boehm missed three field goals, and Ball State's only touchdown came when a Buffalo punt hit one of the Bulls' own linemen and Gabe Aramboles fell on the ball in the end zone. Messiah Burch ran for a career-high 209 yards, and Buffalo's 28-7 win ended Ball State's bowl hopes. "The loss falls on one person, and that's me," Mike Uremovich said. "We didn't score a touchdown, that's completely my fault."
Poulos is still Ohio's quarterback. Asked whether he'd turn to freshman Levi Davis, Hauser said Poulos is the team's guy and has been the starter. "I think the pressure up front in the passing game was definitely a thing that affected our second half," Hauser said of the graduate quarterback's night, adding that a string of third-and-longs made Ohio predictable. Ball State's quarterback is senior Keldric Luster, a dual threat who went 20 of 39 for 136 yards against Buffalo.
The first matchup is Ohio's running game against a Ball State defense Buffalo ran over for 302 yards. Ohio runs a spread option that leans on the ground. If Brune, Victor Rosa and Poulos can keep the Bobcats in short-yardage situations, Ohio avoids the long third downs that undid it in Oxford.
The second is whether Ball State can finish drives against a front its coach clearly respects. "Defensively, it's probably the best unit we've seen in conference play," Uremovich said, and he added that Ohio has "two really, really good linebackers," one of whom "should be the conference defensive player of the year." Michael Molnar and Jack Fries are Ohio's top two tacklers. Ball State's best answer is the running of TJ Horton and Luster, and turning red-zone trips into touchdowns instead of field-goal tries. "We've got to finish in the red zone," Uremovich said.
Ohio's season comes down to two home games. The Bobcats are tied at 5-1 with Toledo, Buffalo and Western Michigan, and only the top two reach the MAC Championship Game at Ford Field in Detroit on Dec. 5. Ohio doesn't play Buffalo or Western Michigan, so a crowded finish would go to tiebreakers, which The Post in Athens noted don't necessarily help the Bobcats. Toledo visits Peden the day after Thanksgiving in a game that will likely decide Ohio's fate, but only if the Bobcats, already bowl-eligible, take care of this one first. Ball State closes at home against Central Michigan with only a spoiler's role left to play. "I know those guys will be ready to play, whether there's a bowl game on the line or not," Hauser said.
Ball State leads the all-time series 16-13. Last October's 20-14 win in Muncie turned on a Ball State goal-line stand at the Ohio 1 before halftime and Kiael Kelly's 43-yard touchdown pass to Qian Magwood with about two minutes left.
The projection is Ohio 27, Ball State 16. Ohio has the better defense, the better running game and a home field where it hasn't lost in a long time, and the Bobcats have a title race to keep alive. Ball State's defense showed against Buffalo that it can keep a game close for a half, but an offense that couldn't score a touchdown last week is hard to fix by Tuesday. Expect a cold, calm, dry night in the low 40s.
The market, for the record: Ohio is about an 8.5-point favorite, and the total is 49.5. The projection (Ohio by 11) sits 2.5 points past the line.
What breaks it: Ohio's backs get rolling early, Poulos throws on early downs instead of third-and-long, and Molnar and the linebackers keep Luster in the pocket, so the streak reaches 18. The other way it breaks: the hangover from Oxford lingers, Luster makes plays with his legs, Ball State finally finishes a drive or two, and the Cardinals pull off the same kind of upset they managed in Muncie a year ago.