When these teams last met, in Akron in November 2025, the Zips scored on offense and on defense. Jordan Gant ran for 153 yards, Ben Finley threw two touchdown passes, Gage Summers returned a fumble 25 yards for another, and Akron won 44-10. Turn that picture over and you have this week. Akron arrives at 1-9, losers of eight straight. UMass, which finished last season 0-12, opened this one by beating Rutgers 37-21, its first win over a power-conference team since 1978, and it's two wins from bowl eligibility. Wednesday is Senior Night and the Fan Appreciation Game at McGuirk Alumni Stadium, which sits on the UMass campus just across the town line in Hadley, and it's the last home game for the seniors who lived through last fall.
UMass needs it after a miserable trip to Toledo last Wednesday. The Rockets won 24-0, and the Minutemen never reached the red zone. Pop Watson, the senior quarterback, went down on the second drive with what looked like the same ankle injury that cost him two games in October, and the injuries kept coming. "We had 11 or 12 starters, depending on how you look at it, not finish the game," Joe Harasymiak said. Backup Logan Inagawa completed 10 of 27 passes and threw an interception that Toledo returned for a touchdown.
Akron's last game had a couple of bright spots in a 42-14 home loss to Western Michigan last Tuesday. Cibastian Broughton threw touchdown passes of 35 and 39 yards to Marcel Williams, and linebacker Tairan Davis made 15 tackles. But Western ran for 360 yards and outgained the Zips by more than 300. A week earlier, Akron led Ohio, then unbeaten in the league, 17-14 in the fourth quarter before the Bobcats scored 13 seconds later on a 60-yard pass and pulled away, 28-20.
The quarterback question is UMass's. Harasymiak had no update on Watson after the game. "I won't know more on that until probably we get back and get him into our own facility and take a look," he said. Watson leads the MAC in completion percentage. If he can't go, it's Inagawa, a sophomore who started nine games as a true freshman at FCS Drake and threw his first FBS passes at Toledo. Starting cornerbacks Isaiah Reed and TJ Magee, receiver T.Y. Harding and defensive lineman Josh Nobles were also missing or hurt at Toledo, and UMass hasn't said who will be back. Akron's quarterback picture is steadier. Broughton has started the last two games after returning from an injury he suffered at Minnesota in September.
The matchup that decides this is UMass's pass rush against Akron's protection. The Minutemen rank second in the MAC in total defense and get after the quarterback, while Akron had allowed 25 sacks before the Western game. If UMass can make Broughton hurry, its defense can carry an offense that may be running on a backup.
The ball is the other piece. Akron has turned it over more than twice as often as UMass this season, and a short field may be the easiest way for the Minutemen to score with this lineup. When they do get close, they finish: UMass has scored on 25 of 28 trips inside the 20. Kicker Derek Morris, one of six FBS kickers with at least four field goals of 50 yards or more this season, gives them points from farther out than most.
UMass's bowl math is tighter than its record looks. Only one win over an FCS team counts toward the six a team needs, and UMass beat two, Sacred Heart and Stonehill. So for bowl purposes it's 4-5, not 5-5. Beat Akron and then win at Bowling Green on Nov. 28, and the Minutemen are eligible. Split the last two and they'd be 6-6 on paper but short on countable wins, which would leave them hoping for an open spot with no guarantee. Akron can't reach a bowl, and a loss would leave the Zips winless in league play with one game left, at home against Buffalo, which is chasing the MAC title.
Akron leads the series 4-2. UMass's last win came at home in 2019, 37-29. Two of the Zips' wins, 14-13 in 2013 and 17-13 in 2015, came at Gillette Stadium, where UMass played some home games early in its FBS years.
The projection is UMass 20, Akron 17. The Minutemen have the better defense, they take care of the ball, and they'll have a Senior Night crowd behind them. But they're badly banged up, Inagawa would be making his first FBS start if Watson can't go, and Akron played both Ohio and Eastern Michigan to one-score games. Broughton and Williams can make the kind of big plays that swing a close one. A field goal either way feels about right.
The market, for the record: UMass is about a 2.5-point favorite, and the total is 45.5. The projection (UMass by 3) sits a half point past the line.
What breaks it: Watson plays, the UMass front gets to Broughton early, Akron gives the ball away a couple of times, and the seniors walk off a step from a bowl. The other way it breaks: Watson is out, Inagawa struggles again, Broughton and Williams connect on another long one or two, and Akron gets its first league win of the year.