The last time James Madison played at UConn, in 1996, the Huskies still played their home games in Storrs. Thirty years later the Dukes make their first trip to the Rent, the East Hartford stadium built on an old Pratt & Whitney airfield that UConn has called home since 2003.
Both teams have new men in charge. Billy Napier, who built Louisiana into a Sun Belt champion before four seasons at Florida, is 8-2 in his first year at James Madison. Jason Candle came from Toledo, where he won two MAC titles, and is trying to keep UConn bowling in his first season after Jim Mora's two nine-win teams.
The Dukes come in with their swagger back. After back-to-back overtime losses, at App State and at home to Troy, they went to Hattiesburg on a Thursday night and beat Southern Miss 54-23. JC Evans, who won the starting job in camp before getting hurt in the opener, took it back and accounted for four touchdowns, three of them on the ground. Napier says Evans won the job, and the Dukes didn't look back after halftime.
UConn is headed the other way, with two straight losses. North Carolina beat the Huskies 38-21 last Saturday in front of the biggest crowd of the season at the Rent, and three turnovers by Kalieb Osborne turned into 21 Tar Heel points. It has been that kind of year. UConn lost to Miami (Ohio) by three and to Syracuse by one in overtime, two games that would have the Huskies sitting pretty right now.
Instead, they need two wins in their last three games, against James Madison, Old Dominion and at Wyoming, to reach six and a third straight bowl trip. This is the hardest of the three, and a win here would take a lot of pressure off the last two.
The game on the field starts with the run. George Pettaway leads the Sun Belt in rushing, and the Dukes have the stingiest run defense in the league. UConn's best answer is Cyncir Bowers, who has averaged better than six yards a carry, and an Osborne who can hurt a defense with his legs as well as his arm. If the Huskies can't run, they'll be asking Osborne to carry them through the air, and that's where their trouble started last week.
The kicking game could matter, too. James Madison's Morgan Suarez, a seventh-year senior, has been one of the most reliable scorers in the conference, and he made four field goals in Hattiesburg. UConn is going with a freshman, Jack O'Connor, who has made four of seven this year, and Candle has said that's who the Huskies are sticking with.
For the Dukes, nothing in the Sun Belt standings rides on this one. It's their last game outside the league, with the East race and a home finale against Coastal Carolina still ahead, so the job is to stay sharp and stay healthy on a cloudy, chilly afternoon in the mid-40s.
The projection is James Madison 31, UConn 24. The Dukes run the ball better, stop the run better and have the steadier leg if it comes down to a kick. UConn is at home with plenty to play for, and Osborne is good enough to keep it close, but the Huskies have to clean up the turnovers to pull the upset.
The market, for the record: James Madison is about a 3.5-point favorite, and the total is 57.5. The projection (James Madison by 7) sits a little over the line.
What breaks it: Bowers gets loose early, Osborne protects the ball, and UConn turns a noon kickoff into a fourth-quarter fight. The other way it breaks: the Dukes take the run away, Osborne has to throw, and James Madison's pass rush, led by JT Hooten, turns the afternoon into a long one for the Huskies.