The Bears have played football on the same ground in Springfield since 1941. It was Briggs Stadium until 1991, when a renovation added an upper deck on the west side and the stadium took the name of Robert W. Plaster, whose gift paid for the work. Saturday is Homecoming there, with a morning parade down John Q. Hammons Parkway and a student-chosen theme of "Bearchella." By late afternoon, one of these teams will be out of the bowl picture. New Mexico State and Missouri State are both 3-6, both need to win their last three, and only one can still do it after Saturday.
Missouri State lost its chance to pull even last week in about 30 seconds. Down 17-6 at FIU early in the fourth quarter, the Bears came back. J.J. O'Neal forced a strip-sack, Jashawn Cooper returned the fumble 51 yards for a touchdown, and Henry Belin IV ran in the two-point try to tie it. Yousef Obeid made four field goals, the last a 37-yarder that tied it again at 20 with 32 seconds left. FIU then drove for the winning kick as time ran out. The Bears made five trips inside the 20 and came away with three field goals, an interception and a turnover on downs. "We are not combining our effort with execution," Casey Woods said afterward.
New Mexico State spent Homecoming in Las Cruces losing to unbeaten Liberty, 30-14, though it was closer than that for a long time. Trey Hedden, back in the starting job he held to open the season, found AJ Williams III for two touchdowns, and Williams caught eight passes for 150 yards. The second capped a 90-yard drive that cut Liberty's lead to 16-14 in the fourth quarter. Then the Flames scored twice on the ground, and Hedden's second interception ended it in the final minute.
Tony Sanchez stayed with Hedden this week. "So he'll be the starter this week," he said, adding that Adam Damante, who started in his place for a stretch, "had his share of turnovers too." Sanchez also said both teams have players banged up but didn't name anyone. Missouri State's quarterback job has belonged to Belin since Skyler Locklear limped off at Western Kentucky on Oct. 8. Woods said Locklear was cleared to come back, but the Bears stayed with Belin.
The first matchup to watch is New Mexico State's running game. James Jones leads Conference USA in rushing, but Liberty crowded the line and held the Aggies to 44 yards on the ground. Missouri State is a different test. Only two teams in the league are worse against the run than Missouri State, and FIU ran for more than 250 yards on it last week. Sanchez said he wasn't worried about his running game this week, and the matchup suggests why.
The second runs the other way. Missouri State doesn't run it well, so the Bears lean on Belin and a pair of good receivers. Isaiah Myers is the big-play threat, and Jmariyae Robinson, the program's career leader in catches, needs nine more receiving yards to become its career leader in yards, too. New Mexico State has recorded at least one sack in 11 straight games, with Gabe Peterson leading the way, so Belin will need time.
Then there's the ball. The Aggies have turned it over more than any team in the league, three more times against Liberty, and Missouri State scored its only touchdown at FIU on defense. New Mexico State's defense usually takes the ball away, too. Against Liberty it failed to force a turnover for only the second time in 25 games.
Even the winner faces a steep climb. Missouri State finishes at Jacksonville State and at home against Liberty, the two teams unbeaten in league play. New Mexico State has the friendlier road: Delaware at home, then a trip to Middle Tennessee. The Aggies are 1-3 away from Las Cruces, with the win at Sam Houston, and Missouri State is 0-5 on the road but 3-1 at home.
They met for the first time as league opponents last October in Las Cruces, and Missouri State won 24-17 in overtime. Aggies quarterback Logan Fife threw four interceptions that night, and the turnover story hasn't changed much since. The Bears went on to a bowl game last season, losing to Arkansas State in the Xbox Bowl under an interim coach before Woods arrived from SMU, where he ran the offense.
The projection is Missouri State 27, New Mexico State 24. The Bears are at home, where they've been a different team, and the Aggies' turnovers are the most dependable thing in this matchup. But Jones and the New Mexico State run game line up well against a Missouri State defense that has struggled to stop the run, and the Aggies just stayed with the league's best team well into the fourth quarter. Expect a cool, calm afternoon in the mid-40s.
The market, for the record: Missouri State is about a 1.5-point favorite, and the total is 49.5. The projection (Missouri State by 3) is within two points of the line, leaning toward the Bears.
What breaks it: Jones gets going early, Hedden plays a clean game, and New Mexico State keeps its season alive with a second road win. The other way it breaks: the Aggies give the ball away again, Robinson and Myers find room, and Missouri State gives the Homecoming crowd its fourth home win.