A year ago, Liberty went 4-8 after heavy roster turnover, the worst season of Jamey Chadwell's time in Lynchburg. Middle Tennessee finished 3-9 for the second straight year under Derek Mason. Neither looks much like that team now. The Flames have won eight in a row and lead Conference USA, and the Blue Raiders are one win from bowl eligibility. Saturday is Military Appreciation Day at Williams Stadium, and it will show which of these comebacks has further to run.
Middle Tennessee comes in fresh off the best afternoon of Mason's three seasons. Last Saturday's Homecoming win over Western Kentucky ended a seven-game losing streak in the 100 Miles of Hate, the Blue Raiders' first win in the rivalry since 2018, and the finish was as wild as the game. The Hilltoppers tied it at 42 with 31 seconds left. Roman Gagliano found Cam'ron Lacy for 23 yards, a holding penalty moved the ball closer, and Dominic Bourgeois hit a 48-yard field goal on the final play. Officials put one second back on the clock, WKU tried a string of laterals on the kickoff, and Middle Tennessee scooped up the loose ball and ran it in to make it 51-42. "Seven years, like I said, is a long time," Mason said afterward.
Last November, Gagliano made his first college start in Bowling Green and threw for nearly 400 yards in a loss. This time he threw four touchdown passes, true freshman Ziyon Butler caught a 65-yarder for his first career score, and Antonio Martin Jr. opened the second half with a 75-yard touchdown run on his way to a career-high 125 yards.
Liberty's win in Las Cruces took longer to settle. New Mexico State scored on its opening drive and pulled within 16-14 after halftime, but the Flames held the ball for 37 minutes and wore the Aggies down. Chase Reeves made three field goals, the longest from 49 yards. Deshawn Purdie threw a 15-yard touchdown pass to Makai Jackson with 21 seconds to go before halftime, then Kam Davis and Peyton Jones ran in fourth-quarter scores to make it 30-14.
Purdie is on his third school, after Charlotte and Wake Forest, and he won the starting job this year. He has thrown just one interception all season. The other quarterback worth watching is Ethan Vasko. He hurt his right shoulder against James Madison last fall, had surgery in the offseason and missed spring practice, and has come back as Liberty's short-yardage and goal-line quarterback. Chadwell put it simply: "We've got him in a package; we think he can execute it."
Everything starts with Liberty's ground game. The Flames run more than they throw, and Davis is averaging over six yards per carry. Only Sam Houston has been worse against the run in the league than Middle Tennessee, and no one has let more runners into the end zone. Liberty's defense, by contrast, has allowed four rushing touchdowns all season.
The other key is the ball. Middle Tennessee doesn't give it away, with six turnovers in nine games, and that matters against a Liberty defense that has 10 interceptions and has held five straight Conference USA opponents to 14 points or fewer.
For Liberty, the payoff is right there. A win clinches a spot in the Conference USA Championship Game on Dec. 4. Jacksonville State is also unbeaten in league play, the two don't meet in the regular season, and if both finish that way, a computer ranking decides who hosts. The Flames close with Western Kentucky in Lynchburg and Missouri State on the road. They're outside the committee's top 25 for now, so any playoff hopes run through a league title and help elsewhere.
Middle Tennessee doesn't need this one to get to six wins. Next come a trip to Sam Houston, still winless in Conference USA, and a home finale against New Mexico State. A win here would simply be the biggest of Mason's tenure.
The series has gone Liberty's way. The Flames lead 3-1 and have won the last three, most recently 37-17 in Murfreesboro two years ago. Middle Tennessee's only win came in 1982, a 27-7 game at home, when Liberty was a small-college program still decades from its 2018 move up to FBS. The Blue Raiders have never won in Lynchburg, and Liberty is 4-0 at home this season.
The projection is Liberty 35, Middle Tennessee 13. Liberty is the better running team, far better against the run and almost never gives it away, and no defense in the league has been stingier. Middle Tennessee's offense is playing its best football of the year and could hang around early, but the Blue Raiders are 1-3 on the road, and their one trip to a Power Four stadium ended 55-0 at Kansas. Lynchburg's forecast is cool and dry, in the upper 40s, with a gusty northwest wind.
The market, for the record: Liberty is about a 21-point favorite, and the total is 53.5. The projection (Liberty by 22) sits a point over the line.
What breaks it: Gagliano picks up where he left off against WKU, Martin breaks a long one early, and Middle Tennessee keeps this a one-score game into the second half. The other way it breaks: Davis and the Flames' backs control the clock the way they did in Las Cruces, Vasko cashes in near the goal line, and Liberty is out of sight by the fourth quarter.