Kennesaw State has played Sam Houston three times and has never won. The Bearkats beat the Owls 34-27 in Huntsville in the 2017 FCS quarterfinals. In 2023 the Owls led 14-0 after one quarter at Bowers Stadium and lost 24-21, and a year later Sam Houston won 23-17 in overtime in Kennesaw. Neither program expected to be where it is this November.
A year ago Kennesaw State was the surprise of Conference USA. In Jerry Mack's first season the Owls went 10-4 and beat Jacksonville State 19-15 for the league title. This fall they started 1-6, and three of those losses came by three points or fewer: at Arkansas State, at home to Jax State by one, and at Missouri State. They have won two straight since, 44-28 at Middle Tennessee and then a 42-40 Homecoming win over Delaware last Saturday.
That Delaware game had eight lead changes. Davis Bryson returned the opening kickoff 99 yards, the second-longest return in program history, and Boogie Woods III ran for two touchdowns for the second week in a row. Down 34-33 to start the fourth quarter, Landon Varnes found tight end Reed Jesiolowski for a 63-yard touchdown, the first touchdown pass of Varnes' Division I career. Daniel Kinney's 35-yard field goal with 8:25 left gave the Owls just enough room, because Delaware scored with 24 seconds to go and missed the two-point try. Afterward Mack pointed to the whole team: "You saw offense, defense and special teams, all phases of the game come together and play."
Varnes was only in there because Rickie Collins got hurt. The Syracuse transfer ran for a touchdown in the first quarter, but he also threw an interception that Delaware returned for a score, and he didn't return after the quarter. Kennesaw State hasn't named the injury. A report early this week said Collins was day-to-day and doing light work in practice, so the starter for Saturday is still an open question.
Sam Houston is going through a reset of its own. The school fired Phil Longo on Oct. 28, the day after a 24-3 loss at Missouri State dropped the Bearkats to 1-7. He went 3-17 in two seasons. Associate head coach Eric Raisbeck and defensive coordinator Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay are now co-interim head coaches, chief of staff Mike Reed handles the administrative side, and offensive coordinator Zack Patterson is calling plays. "We really have three interim head coaches," athletic director Bobby Williams told The Huntsville Item. The school has also hired a search firm to help find the next coach.
The first game under that setup was a 47-14 loss at unbeaten Jax State last Saturday, though the Kats kept the Gamecocks off the board for about a quarter and a half. Landyn Locke, back after a lower-leg injury cost him the Missouri State game, threw a 64-yard touchdown pass to Chris Reed. He looked to be limping after a safety early in the fourth quarter and didn't come back, and DJ Bailey finished the game with a 7-yard touchdown pass to Grady O'Neill. There has been no word on which of them starts Saturday.
The ground game is where this one gets decided. Sam Houston has given up more rushing yards than any team in the league, and that's the main reason its pass defense looks so stingy on paper: opponents rarely need to throw. Woods has 157 rushing yards and four touchdowns over the last two games, and with nobody settled at quarterback, the Owls have every reason to keep feeding him.
Then there's the Bearkats' offense. They run the ball worse than anyone in the conference and have allowed the most sacks, and Kennesaw State's front just had its best day of the season, with three sacks and 11 quarterback hurries against Delaware.
Kennesaw State has no slack left. At 3-6, the Owls must sweep their last three to reach six wins: this one, FIU at home next Saturday and a trip to Western Kentucky to close. None of the three has a winning record, so winning out is a real possibility. A loss here ends it.
Sam Houston can't reach six wins, but it has two home dates left. It's Salute to Service and Family Weekend at Bowers Stadium, and Middle Tennessee visits next before the season ends at FIU. The Bearkats' only win this fall came against FCS Nicholls, so a first league win of the season would mean plenty in Huntsville.
The projection is Kennesaw State 27, Sam Houston 16. The Owls have the better running game, they're facing the league's softest run defense, and their pass rush lines up well against a line that has struggled to protect. The quarterback question on both sides keeps this from being a runaway, and Sam Houston's defense has hung around early against better teams. Expect a mild, dry afternoon in the upper 60s with little wind.
The market, for the record: Kennesaw State is about a 7-point favorite, and the total is 46.5. The projection (Kennesaw State by 11) sits a few points over the line.
What breaks it: Sam Houston finds a quarterback who can stay upright, Patterson's play-calling gives the Bearkats a few early scores, and the series history starts to weigh on the visitors in the fourth quarter. The other way it breaks: Woods gets loose early, the Owls' defense keeps collecting sacks, and Kennesaw State pulls away before halftime.