North Texas has won in San Antonio exactly once, in 2018. Saturday night the Mean Green come back to the Alamodome alone in first place in the American, and the building has rarely been friendly to visitors. UTSA played the first game in its history under that roof in 2011, in front of 56,743 people, a record for a start-up program, and the Roadrunners have treated it as a fortress ever since.
This is the 15th meeting, the most-played series in UTSA history, and some in Texas call it the Battle of the Birds, a roadrunner against an eagle. It has had its swings. North Texas ended UTSA's unbeaten run in Denton in 2021, and the Roadrunners answered a year later by beating the Mean Green 48-27 in the Conference USA title game in this building. They won by the same score here in 2024. Last fall in Denton, North Texas ran away with it, 55-17. UTSA leads the series 8-6.
The Mean Green have won six straight. Last Saturday they trailed Rice 10-7 at halftime of their own Homecoming, then scored touchdowns on their last six possessions and won 52-23. Jahiem White ran for 139 yards and three touchdowns, one of them from 60 yards out, and Tayven Jackson threw for 303 yards and ran for two scores. On defense, Zakye Barker forced a fumble and Peyton Taylor returned an interception 41 yards, and both takeaways turned into touchdowns. It was North Texas's first 5-0 start in league play since 2004, which is also the last time the program won a conference title.
UTSA is coming off its worst night in a while. The Roadrunners had won five straight before Florida Atlantic beat them 60-29 in Boca Raton on Thursday, Nov. 5, and ran for 339 yards doing it. Owen McCown threw three touchdown passes, and Mekhi Anderson had the first 100-yard game of his career, but the defense never found its footing. Jeff Traylor said this week that the defense is "definitely wounded right now," and he put the blame on the staff, saying, "We've got great players here. They're super kids."
The injuries are the bigger worry. Starting right guard Darrell Jones left that game and watched the end in street clothes, receiver DJ Allen didn't return, and running back Will Henderson, UTSA's leading rusher, hobbled off with an apparent ankle injury and got no more carries after he came back. Traylor wouldn't project who will be available. "We lost a lot of kids tonight," he said after the game. "We're pretty thin as it is." The official injury report isn't due until Saturday.
The first matchup is the obvious one. North Texas has the best offense in the country by yards, and it can beat a defense either way. White leads the nation in 100-yard rushing games, and Traylor called Jackson "the greatest quarterback we've played against" in his time at UTSA. That's a hard draw for a defense FAU just ran all over.
The second is the ball. The Mean Green have turned it over only twice in their last four games, and their defense has forced at least two turnovers in each of the last two. "The ball is everything," center Chandler Strong said this week. UTSA's best answer is McCown keeping the chains moving and Jackson on the sideline. Neal Brown's scouting report on him was short: "Tough dude."
Brown knows what he's walking into. "It starts with head coach Jeff Traylor. He's Mr. Texas," he said this week. "I've known him since I was OC at Texas Tech and he was winning a bunch of games at Gilmer." Since 2020, UTSA is 37-5 in the Alamodome, and it has won its last seven Homecoming games.
The standings make this the biggest game left on the American schedule. Memphis beat South Florida on Thursday to move to 5-1, so a UTSA win would leave three teams tied at the top at 5-1. A North Texas win would put the Mean Green two games clear of UTSA with two to play, and a long way toward the championship game on Dec. 5. Neither finish is easy. North Texas goes to Tulane and then hosts UAB, while UTSA goes to UAB and closes at home against Tulsa on Senior Day.
The projection is North Texas 38, UTSA 34. The Mean Green have the better offense, a quarterback and running back playing their best, and a defense that has been winning the turnover battle, while UTSA is banged up on both sides of the ball and just gave up 60 points. But this is the Roadrunners' building, on Homecoming night, and history says that counts for a lot. The game is indoors, so weather won't be a factor.
The market, for the record: North Texas is about a 2.5-point favorite, and the total is 76.5. The projection (North Texas by 4) sits a little over the line, toward the Mean Green.
What breaks it: UTSA gets its injured starters back, McCown and the Roadrunners' ground game control the clock, and the dome crowd does the rest. The other way it breaks: White gets loose early against a thin defense, North Texas protects the ball again, and the Mean Green finally win a big one in San Antonio.